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StarksBarmy
Joined: 03 Apr 2010
Posts: 3793
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 Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 4:38 pm Post subject: Hamilton v Raith Rovers |
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Here’s how it goes, we beat Hamilton, Pars narrowly win in Glasgow, Ayr win convincingly in Dumfries…
Last week of fixtures… Ayr win to make sure of survival at home to Thistle, Pars enter the play offs at one end, we enter the play offs at the other!
It really is that simple. |
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Franco
Joined: 10 Oct 2019
Posts: 1031
Location: kirkcaldy
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Who would care to calculate the odds for that scenario? Tx? Anyone else? |
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Gary Parker
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Joined: 06 Jul 2008
Posts: 1775
Location: About half way between the place I was and the place I intend to be
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| Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 6:27 pm Post subject: Re: Hamilton v Raith Rovers |
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| StarksBarmy wrote: | Here’s how it goes, we beat Hamilton, Pars narrowly win in Glasgow, Ayr win convincingly in Dumfries…
Last week of fixtures… Ayr win to make sure of survival at home to Thistle, Pars enter the play offs at one end, we enter the play offs at the other!
It really is that simple. |
A pars narrow win is only good if we score a few as Partick are 9 goals better off than us in the GD column. So I'll take us and Pars winning 5-0 each thanks |
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TxRover
Joined: 02 Jun 2018
Posts: 3034
Location: North Texas, USA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:43 am Post subject: |
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| Franco wrote: | | Who would care to calculate the odds for that scenario? Tx? Anyone else? |
Well, Ayr in eighth is a 50% chance, and us in the playoffs is 5% (credit to Fuctifano’s model on P&B), so call it 2.5% chance. |
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Cuparman
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 1611
Location: Irvine
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:09 am Post subject: |
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| TxRover wrote: | | Franco wrote: | | Who would care to calculate the odds for that scenario? Tx? Anyone else? |
Well, Ayr in eighth is a 50% chance, and us in the playoffs is 5% (credit to Fuctifano’s model on P&B), so call it 2.5% chance. |
A fifty to one shot won the grand national,  
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Neil M
Joined: 16 Aug 2008
Posts: 2430
Location: Aberdeen
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:41 am Post subject: |
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An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?
Hamilton result almost 'academic'. |
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Biggles
Joined: 15 Jul 2008
Posts: 2147
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:31 am Post subject: |
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| Neil M wrote: | An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?
Hamilton result almost 'academic'. |
I reckon it should go to the bigger team.
So that'll be Ayr then.  |
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Gary Parker
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Joined: 06 Jul 2008
Posts: 1775
Location: About half way between the place I was and the place I intend to be
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:34 am Post subject: |
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| Neil M wrote: | An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?
Hamilton result almost 'academic'. |
Right now its being decided by the head-to-head results between them, I imagine it would stay that way at the end. Its a tough way to go down though. |
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embow
Moderator
Joined: 06 Jul 2008
Posts: 12211
Location: Lybster: O'er 'e Ord and far frae Fife
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:37 am Post subject: |
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Does most goals "scored for" not come into the calculations somewhere? Or maybe they're both the same just now?
Really haven't a clue to be honest.
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Vinnie
Joined: 12 Jul 2008
Posts: 7926
Location: None Of Your Business
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:00 pm Post subject: |
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Ayr and Dunfermline currently have the same GF and GA
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THERES FIVE OF ME |
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embow
Moderator
Joined: 06 Jul 2008
Posts: 12211
Location: Lybster: O'er 'e Ord and far frae Fife
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Vinnie wrote: | | Ayr and Dunfermline currently have the same GF and GA |
Cheers Vinnie 👍
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TxRover
Joined: 02 Jun 2018
Posts: 3034
Location: North Texas, USA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Neil M wrote: | An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?
Hamilton result almost 'academic'. |
There’s also a scenario now where Ayr end up tenth and the Pars ninth! |
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Franco
Joined: 10 Oct 2019
Posts: 1031
Location: kirkcaldy
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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On the specific topic of Hamilton v The Rovers ,we want to win this fixture and hope that the Pars thump Partick.
Even a draw provides us with the consolation of the fifth-place prizemoney.
Ending this odd season with two wins is a positive for which to aim.
C'mon The Rovers! |
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TxRover
Joined: 02 Jun 2018
Posts: 3034
Location: North Texas, USA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Franco wrote: | On the specific topic of Hamilton v The Rovers ,we want to win this fixture and hope that the Pars thump Partick.
Even a draw provides us with the consolation of the fifth-place prizemoney.
Ending this odd season with two wins is a positive for which to aim.
C'mon The Rovers! |
I’d give up fifth for the Pars down by playoff and Ayr out the trapdoor. QoS won’t be a strong side next year, and it would be a nice security blanket. |
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Craig_1986
Joined: 18 Jun 2011
Posts: 1814
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:58 am Post subject: |
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Ideal scenario. If I've worked this out correctly...
* Rovers to beat Hamiton
* Dunfermline to beat Partick
* Kilmarnock to beat Arbroath
At the bottom.
* Ayr to beat Queens (Queens relgated). That along with a Dunfermline win against Partick means it's between Dunfermline and Ayr for the relegation playoffs. They'd both be level on points.
Following week:
* Ayr still have something to play for so hopefully a jammy win against Partick.
* If Ayr can win a draw or win for us against the already crowned champions would be enough for us to make the playoffs.
* Queens already relegated and nothing to play for so might feel a bit less pressure and go out and get a surprising win/draw against Dunfermline meaning Dunfermline finish 9th. |
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