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Hamilton v Raith Rovers
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StarksBarmy



Joined: 03 Apr 2010
Posts: 3706

PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 3:38 pm    Post subject: Hamilton v Raith Rovers Reply with quote

Here’s how it goes, we beat Hamilton, Pars narrowly win in Glasgow, Ayr win convincingly in Dumfries…

Last week of fixtures… Ayr win to make sure of survival at home to Thistle, Pars enter the play offs at one end, we enter the play offs at the other!

It really is that simple.
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Franco



Joined: 10 Oct 2019
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who would care to calculate the odds for that scenario? Tx? Anyone else?
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Gary Parker
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Joined: 06 Jul 2008
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Location: About half way between the place I was and the place I intend to be

PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:27 pm    Post subject: Re: Hamilton v Raith Rovers Reply with quote

StarksBarmy wrote:
Here’s how it goes, we beat Hamilton, Pars narrowly win in Glasgow, Ayr win convincingly in Dumfries…

Last week of fixtures… Ayr win to make sure of survival at home to Thistle, Pars enter the play offs at one end, we enter the play offs at the other!

It really is that simple.


A pars narrow win is only good if we score a few as Partick are 9 goals better off than us in the GD column. So I'll take us and Pars winning 5-0 each thanks
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TxRover



Joined: 02 Jun 2018
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Location: North Texas, USA

PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Franco wrote:
Who would care to calculate the odds for that scenario? Tx? Anyone else?


Well, Ayr in eighth is a 50% chance, and us in the playoffs is 5% (credit to Fuctifano’s model on P&B), so call it 2.5% chance.
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Cuparman



Joined: 12 Jul 2008
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Location: Irvine

PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TxRover wrote:
Franco wrote:
Who would care to calculate the odds for that scenario? Tx? Anyone else?


Well, Ayr in eighth is a 50% chance, and us in the playoffs is 5% (credit to Fuctifano’s model on P&B), so call it 2.5% chance.


A fifty to one shot won the grand national, Laughing Wink
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Neil M



Joined: 16 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?

Hamilton result almost 'academic'.
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Biggles



Joined: 15 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Neil M wrote:
An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?

Hamilton result almost 'academic'.

I reckon it should go to the bigger team.
So that'll be Ayr then. Very Happy
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Gary Parker
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Neil M wrote:
An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?

Hamilton result almost 'academic'.


Right now its being decided by the head-to-head results between them, I imagine it would stay that way at the end. Its a tough way to go down though.
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embow
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Joined: 05 Jul 2008
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Location: Lybster: O'er 'e Ord and far frae Fife

PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does most goals "scored for" not come into the calculations somewhere? Or maybe they're both the same just now?
Really haven't a clue to be honest.
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Vinnie



Joined: 12 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ayr and Dunfermline currently have the same GF and GA
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embow
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinnie wrote:
Ayr and Dunfermline currently have the same GF and GA

Cheers Vinnie 👍
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TxRover



Joined: 02 Jun 2018
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Neil M wrote:
An interesting one in history, with Ayr and the Pars gridlocked on points, goal-difference and the same two teams to play their last two games against. What happens if they do both get the same results, does it go to away-goals, or something else?

Hamilton result almost 'academic'.


There’s also a scenario now where Ayr end up tenth and the Pars ninth!
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Franco



Joined: 10 Oct 2019
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Location: kirkcaldy

PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the specific topic of Hamilton v The Rovers ,we want to win this fixture and hope that the Pars thump Partick.
Even a draw provides us with the consolation of the fifth-place prizemoney.
Ending this odd season with two wins is a positive for which to aim.
C'mon The Rovers!
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TxRover



Joined: 02 Jun 2018
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Franco wrote:
On the specific topic of Hamilton v The Rovers ,we want to win this fixture and hope that the Pars thump Partick.
Even a draw provides us with the consolation of the fifth-place prizemoney.
Ending this odd season with two wins is a positive for which to aim.
C'mon The Rovers!


I’d give up fifth for the Pars down by playoff and Ayr out the trapdoor. QoS won’t be a strong side next year, and it would be a nice security blanket.
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Craig_1986



Joined: 18 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ideal scenario. If I've worked this out correctly...

* Rovers to beat Hamiton
* Dunfermline to beat Partick
* Kilmarnock to beat Arbroath

At the bottom.

* Ayr to beat Queens (Queens relgated). That along with a Dunfermline win against Partick means it's between Dunfermline and Ayr for the relegation playoffs. They'd both be level on points.

Following week:

* Ayr still have something to play for so hopefully a jammy win against Partick.
* If Ayr can win a draw or win for us against the already crowned champions would be enough for us to make the playoffs.
* Queens already relegated and nothing to play for so might feel a bit less pressure and go out and get a surprising win/draw against Dunfermline meaning Dunfermline finish 9th.
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